Azerbaijan said on Wednesday that it had restored full control over a breakaway Armenian enclave, a development that could create thousands of new refugees and spell the end of decades of Armenian efforts to assert sovereignty in the mountainous Caucasus region.
Addressing his nation, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan asserted that pro-Armenian authorities had surrendered after just two days of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh region, which has been under the control of Armenian separatists for more than three decades.
“Karabakh is Azerbaijan,” the emboldened leader declared at the end of the address, putting his fist in the air.
Nagorno-Karabakh, slightly bigger than Rhode Island in area, is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but is home to tens of thousands of Armenians who stayed after a 2020 cease-fire and are under the protection of Russian peacekeepers.
The return of the enclave to Azerbaijani rule is likely to alter power dynamics in the South Caucasus, a region that for centuries has been at the crossroads of geopolitical interests of Russia, Turkey and Western nations.
The Armenian separatists’ surrender could hasten the decline of Russian influence in the Caucasus, where Moscow’s role as an arbiter in the decades-old Nagorno-Karabakh conflict made it a pivotal power. It could also threaten instability in Armenia, where Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has sought to build closer ties with the West despite a military alliance with Russia.
But wider implications aside, the surrender will have very specific consequences for the lives of the tens of thousands of Armenians who live in the area. Many of them are adamantly against coming under Azerbaijani rule, which they fear could result in repercussions for many who fought against Baku.
Mr. Aliyev said that Azerbaijani authorities would meet with representatives of the breakaway government on Thursday to the discuss reintegration of Armenians under Azerbaijani rule.
By the end of Wednesday, authorities in the breakaway pro-Armenian government reported that at least 200 people died because of the hostilities, including 10 civilians; the rest were army servicemen. The numbers could not be independently verified.
Thousands of Armenians flocked to the main square in Yerevan, the country’s capital, on Wednesday to protest against the decision by the government — which is separate from Nagorno-Karabakh’s pro-Armenian authorities — to avoid getting involved in the conflict.
“International countries must impose sanctions on Azerbaijan; otherwise, it will result in genocide,” said Oksana Balayan, 23, whose parents and other relatives were stuck in Stepanakert, the capital of the breakaway region. Ms. Balayan said it was impossible for Armenians to come under Azerbaijani rule, citing multiple examples of grievances.
“Without Artsakh, there won’t be Armenia,” Ms. Balayan said, using the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh.
But the protests lacked a clear alternative leader and plan, and many people in the crowd spoke with resignation.
At the same time, in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, emboldened authorities radiated confidence. Speaking at a briefing with reporters and diplomats, Hikmet Hajiyev, a presidential assistant on international affairs, said that the Azerbaijani government received assurances that the pro-Armenian “forces on the ground will disarm themselves.”
He said the process would be done in coordination with Russian peacekeepers, who, he said “played their important role with regard to ensuring safety on the ground.”
But the role of Russian peacekeepers will most likely wane as Azerbaijan reasserts its control over the region. The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh also prompted many in Armenia to question the traditional view that Russia was their main protector in a region where great power interests collide.
Azerbaijan’s assault this week had prompted fears that it could mark the beginning of a third war with Armenia since the Soviet Union’s collapse — after a yearslong war in the 1990s that left Armenia in control of the territory and seven surrounding districts, and a 44-day conflict in 2020, in which Azerbaijan recaptured much of its land.
But the events moved swiftly as it became clear that without much outside help, the separatists had little chance to stand against Azerbaijan, a country that used its oil and gas income to revamp its army into a potent force.
Early Wednesday, in a statement carried by the Azerbaijani state news agency Azertac, the country’s defense ministry said that it had agreed to halt its “antiterror measures” in Nagorno-Karabakh after the separatist government there agreed that its forces would lay down their arms and withdraw from their battle positions.
Around the same time, the Armenian separatist government issued its own statement declaring that it had accepted a Russia-brokered cease-fire after Azerbaijani forces managed to break through Armenian positions and “take control of a number of heights and strategic road junctions.”
Russian peacekeepers reported no violations since the cease-fire came into force. In a video address, Mr. Pashinyan, the prime minister of Armenia, said that there had been a “steep decline” in the fighting, but that it had not ended, according to Russia’s Interfax news agency.
Speaking in Moscow after the cease-fire was announced, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said, “We are in close contact with all sides of the conflict.”
“I hope that we will be able to achieve de-escalation and to transfer the resolution of this problem into a peaceful channel,” Mr. Putin said.
Later in the evening, Mr. Putin spoke with Mr. Pashinyan, welcoming “the agreement reached with the active participation of Russian peacekeepers on a complete cessation of hostilities.”
But the situation still remained fragile, as several Russian peacekeepers were killed on Wednesday, the country’s defense ministry said, when their car came under small-arms fire while returning from an observation point in Nagorno-Karabakh. The ministry did not specify how many died or who may have shot at them.
The statement from the authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh signaled that they were relenting in part because neighboring Armenia did not send troops to their aid, and because Russian peacekeepers did not try to interfere with Azerbaijan’s assault.
“In the current situation, the actions of the international community toward ending the war and resolving the situation are insufficient,” the Armenian separatist government said in its statement.
Mr. Pashinyan said in his address on Wednesday that the Armenian government had played no role in drafting the cease-fire and that his country had no troops in Nagorno-Karabakh, according to news agency reports. And the Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, signaled that Russia did not see Azerbaijan’s actions as a violation of international law.
“De jure, we are talking about actions of the Azerbaijani side on its own territory,” Mr. Peskov told reporters.
Nagorno-Karabakh declared its independence as the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s. And even as other countries urged an end to the fighting, there appeared to be little they could do to prevent Mr. Aliyev from getting his way. The American secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, held separate calls on Tuesday with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
If the fighting does stop, the fate of the tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians still living in Nagorno-Karabakh is likely to emerge as an explosive and painful question after decades of interethnic violence. While Mr. Aliyev has demanded that Armenians there recognize Azerbaijani rule, many Armenians accuse Azerbaijan of seeking to carry out a policy of ethnic cleansing.
“It is very important that this current military operation is not used as a pretext to force the exodus of the local population from Karabakh, of the Karabakh Armenians,” said Peter Stano, the European Union’s spokesman on foreign affairs.
Monika Pronczuk contributed reporting.
